Friday, January 25, 2008

The Palestinians Exodus

The Gaza Strip has been under the effective control of Hamas since June 14, 2007. And it seems that the Israelis are not able to deal with Hamas at all since then. There are Israeli claims that the Palestinians are attacking the Israeli territories with Al-Qassam missiles every now and then, and Hamas officials don't do anything to stop those attacks. While on the other hand Israel have put the strip under an economic siege since Hamas takeover of it.

Last week, Israel intensified the siege, saying the move was in response to heavy rocket fire from Gaza into Israel. Such move was meant to put Hamas under pressure, however the only victims here were the Palestinian children and civilians.

"Nowadays, Gaza is a territory where the economy has collapsed, power shortages are a daily occurrence, and Israeli air strikes are common", BBC News.

On January 23, 2008, Palestinian militants destroyed several parts of the wall dividing Gaza and Egypt in the town of Rafah. Thousands of Gazans moved across the border in search of food and supplies. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ordered his troops to allow the Palestinians in due to the crisis, but to verify that they did not bring weapons back.

So, as you all can see, the Israeli siege has failed. Even the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, wrote about The Gaza Siege failure:

"The [Israeli] prime minister speaks about the need to continue the closure on Gaza, and the cabinet voices its disappointment with Egypt - as if there were ever any chance that the Egyptians would work to protect Israeli interests along the Philadelphi route instead of thinking first of all of their own interests. The failure of the siege of Gaza, which the government declared only a week ago to be "bearing fruit," and especially the fear that this failure will lead to a conflict with Egypt, requires the government to pull itself together and prove that it has been graced with the ability to solve crises and to lead, not merely to offer endless excuses for its leadership during previous crises", Haaretz.

But wait a minute, it's not that easy, it's far beyond politics, it's physics.

"Defense officials reached the conclusion that it’s all about physics, and that Gaza is like a toothpaste tube. You squeeze it powerfully and the paste comes out of the weakest side – Egypt", Y.Net News.

Isn't it possible that Israel wanted this to happen in the first place. Why not? Especially, when Israeli officials are saying that the "Open border is Israel's chance to lose responsibility for Gaza". It's even possible that they had pre-set plans to hand over the responsibility of Gaza Strip to Egypt.

"Matan Vilnai hinted that Israel would like to hand over – presumably to Egypt – the task of supplying Gaza with water, medicine and electricity, saying: 'We need to understand that, when Gaza is open to the other side, we lose responsibility for it. So we want to disconnect from it'", The Independent.

In fact the Egyptian official made it clear that they are not going to accept the responsibility of Gaza. Hossam Zaki, the official spokesman for Egypt's foreign ministry, said, "The current situation is only an exception and for temporary reasons", he the continued, "The border will go back to normal". But, is such decision final!? I am really not sure about this, but let's try to forecast what will happen if Egypt decided to take the responsibility of Gaza later on.

Let's first think of the negative sides of such decision. First of all, the borders between Gaza and Israel will be totally sealed, but in such situation Gaza will become a part of Egypt, or at least it will become a floating semi-state attached to Egypt. Then Hamas for sure will not stop their resistance, as you know, Hamas is an Islamic movement and they have ideology that is not going to be changed, and Egypt will then be responsible for this. So at the end of the day, Egypt is going to deal with two Muslim-Brotherhoods, but this time, it's an armed and trained MB. Any attempts by the government to stop Hamas resistance will make it an betrayal, infidel, and anti-pan-arabism government. Egypt will also be responsible for supplying Gaza with food, water, energy, but what will in get in return?

But on the other hand, is it really that really bad choice? America and Israel usually accuse Iran by supporting Hizbullah and using it to impose pressure on them or to initiate proxy-wars with them when needed. So why don't Egypt use Hamas as their own Hizbullah? Also with respect to the economic issue, come on, Egypt will supply Gaza with food and water but who said that this will be for free? It's said that the Palestinians invested about 12 millions in the couple of days they spent here in Egypt.

Ok, I am not that good in forecasting today, may be because I am not totally aware of the various details of such complicated issue. And you know what, may be that's what the comment section in blogs is for. I am really willing to see you comments and two or three cents.


HafSSa said...

its a catastoprhy by all means and the victims are... egyptians in first place then palestinians, and i mean ppl of both countries. i think if the situation really ends up like what u said, it will be the first time in history for such a thing to occure. for me, the main problem is the "a27bana" of palestinaina.(sorry for the word but didnt find a better alternative). for more than several days am wanting to speak about it but news keep coming and am astonished, i havent pulled my eyebrows down yet.
am just thinking, all this fury that palestinians did, shouldnt it have been directed against hamas, since its the main cause for this one of a kind situation?? but instead , they do as u said, squeez on the weakest side of the tube. this wall that they have pulled down, shouldnt it have been the wall for the HQ of hamas? those rocks they thrown at egyptian poor soldiers, shouldnt have they thrown it hamas militia???
by the way, am half palestinian, but it doesnt give them an excuse to do such bitchin actions.
never in my life i have been outraged this much , and guess at whom?? at palestinians.
if gaza comes to be under the egyptian rule, i will not be satisfied till all hamasian are in jailed. sorry, as fascist as it may look but otherwise it will be civil war and u can imagine the rest, OMG.
i can go forever about this weirdoooo subject, but am just so shocked, utterly dissatisfied to the extenet i can just shoot all hamas officials AND non officials.
salam after all

Tarek said...

Hello HafSSa

First of all, thanks for passing by. But you know I am now excited to see you expectations about the future scenarios if Egypt agrees to take responsibility of Gaza. As I said before, I am not that expert in this subject and want you to share your expectations and forecasts with me.

Also, I don't want to focus on the negative aspects of such scenarios only. Frankly, according to some reports it's said that the Palestinians spent about $250,000,000 in Egypt in those few days. I don't want to look heartless here, but isn't this good for the Egyptian economy!?

HafSSa said...

ok , it seems nice to know we have gained such an amount in such a small time, but we have to consider some issues here,
1- how much the egyptian government is spending on the extra troops being situated there plus all or any chrges have to be made.
2- how much of other expenses paid by other people like businessmen and the like and whatever is related to shifting all the goods to this area.
there are so many facts we have to look for before we get happy about this 250m$ we made.
thats an issue,
another big factor is the sourcing of money. wael abbas said one teacher was paid 500 $ and he wasnt satisfied, he is getting dollars or even sheikals because the economy of the country paying for them is strong. so right now , yeah they do have alot of money and in liquid cash , but if they merge in with egypt, from whom thay will get paid or funded??
after sometime they will become zero handed like majority of egyptians.
the other fact is the example or iraqis living in 6th of october and nasr city, they came with liquid cash, it was fine, but now look at the final effect they posed on the leasing market, a normal appartment in nasr city used to be rented for 800 pounds for 5 years contract, now coz of iraqis paying cash and willing to pay what ever it gets them, the appartment gets rented for 4000 pounds, and thats in just the last 2-4 years ago.
who is suffering form such a high raise in everything, again egyptians.
now in addition to poor sudanese, rich iraqis, a majority of violent palestinians, and humble egyptians, can u tell me what kind of a scenario we are going to perform in front of eachother??
put in mind, that other countries esp the gulfens wont just take all palestinians or iraqis running away from thier homes. nither any of the so heroic countries like syria or tunisia who are so great and arrogant doing parades encouarging palestinians to stay in egypt but they dont offer any tangible help.
so, again, whos the main affected country/people/ economy/social and political life?
doesnt it look scary????
i cant be happy about the money when such a complicated situation is happening . am afraid the price going to be paid might be worth or more than those 250 m$ gained now.

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