Friday, January 25, 2008

The Palestinians Exodus

The Gaza Strip has been under the effective control of Hamas since June 14, 2007. And it seems that the Israelis are not able to deal with Hamas at all since then. There are Israeli claims that the Palestinians are attacking the Israeli territories with Al-Qassam missiles every now and then, and Hamas officials don't do anything to stop those attacks. While on the other hand Israel have put the strip under an economic siege since Hamas takeover of it.

Last week, Israel intensified the siege, saying the move was in response to heavy rocket fire from Gaza into Israel. Such move was meant to put Hamas under pressure, however the only victims here were the Palestinian children and civilians.

"Nowadays, Gaza is a territory where the economy has collapsed, power shortages are a daily occurrence, and Israeli air strikes are common", BBC News.

On January 23, 2008, Palestinian militants destroyed several parts of the wall dividing Gaza and Egypt in the town of Rafah. Thousands of Gazans moved across the border in search of food and supplies. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ordered his troops to allow the Palestinians in due to the crisis, but to verify that they did not bring weapons back.

So, as you all can see, the Israeli siege has failed. Even the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, wrote about The Gaza Siege failure:

"The [Israeli] prime minister speaks about the need to continue the closure on Gaza, and the cabinet voices its disappointment with Egypt - as if there were ever any chance that the Egyptians would work to protect Israeli interests along the Philadelphi route instead of thinking first of all of their own interests. The failure of the siege of Gaza, which the government declared only a week ago to be "bearing fruit," and especially the fear that this failure will lead to a conflict with Egypt, requires the government to pull itself together and prove that it has been graced with the ability to solve crises and to lead, not merely to offer endless excuses for its leadership during previous crises", Haaretz.

But wait a minute, it's not that easy, it's far beyond politics, it's physics.

"Defense officials reached the conclusion that it’s all about physics, and that Gaza is like a toothpaste tube. You squeeze it powerfully and the paste comes out of the weakest side – Egypt", Y.Net News.

Isn't it possible that Israel wanted this to happen in the first place. Why not? Especially, when Israeli officials are saying that the "Open border is Israel's chance to lose responsibility for Gaza". It's even possible that they had pre-set plans to hand over the responsibility of Gaza Strip to Egypt.

"Matan Vilnai hinted that Israel would like to hand over – presumably to Egypt – the task of supplying Gaza with water, medicine and electricity, saying: 'We need to understand that, when Gaza is open to the other side, we lose responsibility for it. So we want to disconnect from it'", The Independent.

In fact the Egyptian official made it clear that they are not going to accept the responsibility of Gaza. Hossam Zaki, the official spokesman for Egypt's foreign ministry, said, "The current situation is only an exception and for temporary reasons", he the continued, "The border will go back to normal". But, is such decision final!? I am really not sure about this, but let's try to forecast what will happen if Egypt decided to take the responsibility of Gaza later on.

Let's first think of the negative sides of such decision. First of all, the borders between Gaza and Israel will be totally sealed, but in such situation Gaza will become a part of Egypt, or at least it will become a floating semi-state attached to Egypt. Then Hamas for sure will not stop their resistance, as you know, Hamas is an Islamic movement and they have ideology that is not going to be changed, and Egypt will then be responsible for this. So at the end of the day, Egypt is going to deal with two Muslim-Brotherhoods, but this time, it's an armed and trained MB. Any attempts by the government to stop Hamas resistance will make it an betrayal, infidel, and anti-pan-arabism government. Egypt will also be responsible for supplying Gaza with food, water, energy, but what will in get in return?

But on the other hand, is it really that really bad choice? America and Israel usually accuse Iran by supporting Hizbullah and using it to impose pressure on them or to initiate proxy-wars with them when needed. So why don't Egypt use Hamas as their own Hizbullah? Also with respect to the economic issue, come on, Egypt will supply Gaza with food and water but who said that this will be for free? It's said that the Palestinians invested about 12 millions in the couple of days they spent here in Egypt.

Ok, I am not that good in forecasting today, may be because I am not totally aware of the various details of such complicated issue. And you know what, may be that's what the comment section in blogs is for. I am really willing to see you comments and two or three cents.